Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-29 0.035480 0.040474 0.045954 0.052419 0.059846 0.068118 0.078045
2025-01-05 0.026514 0.032955 0.040680 0.050650 0.063217 0.078579 0.098858
2025-01-12 0.021961 0.028896 0.037720 0.049818 0.066053 0.087195 0.116996
2025-01-19 0.018367 0.025300 0.034552 0.047874 0.066690 0.092497 0.130892
2025-01-26 0.016858 0.024180 0.034372 0.049702 0.072364 0.104926 0.155789
2025-02-02 0.015632 0.023245 0.034248 0.051458 0.077968 0.117692 0.182551
2025-02-09 0.014600 0.022434 0.034153 0.053148 0.083533 0.130862 0.211368
2025-02-16 0.013249 0.020967 0.032876 0.052811 0.085807 0.139046 0.233052
2025-02-23 0.012233 0.019901 0.032081 0.053100 0.089033 0.148976 0.258651
2025-03-02 0.011155 0.018615 0.030787 0.052391 0.090448 0.155935 0.279802
2025-03-09 0.010532 0.018016 0.030550 0.053418 0.094902 0.168498 0.312337
2025-03-16 0.009719 0.017010 0.029516 0.052922 0.096554 0.176186 0.336648
2025-03-23 0.009326 0.016718 0.029726 0.054733 0.102714 0.192965 0.380842
2025-03-30 0.008433 0.015447 0.028073 0.052940 0.101914 0.196573 0.399535
2025-04-06 0.007769 0.014530 0.026973 0.052064 0.102749 0.203361 0.425427
2025-04-13 0.007026 0.013397 0.025364 0.050029 0.101043 0.204850 0.440255
2025-04-20 0.006833 0.013302 0.025725 0.051943 0.107573 0.223867 0.495479
2025-04-27 0.006641 0.013191 0.026040 0.053783 0.114130 0.243637 0.554937
2025-05-04 0.006452 0.013066 0.026311 0.055553 0.120713 0.264169 0.618829
2025-05-11 0.006063 0.012497 0.025626 0.055199 0.122566 0.274381 0.659493
2025-05-18 0.005769 0.012099 0.025259 0.055503 0.125923 0.288359 0.711169
2025-05-25 0.005405 0.011521 0.024459 0.054760 0.126777 0.296577 0.749429
2025-06-01 0.005221 0.011321 0.024458 0.055835 0.132033 0.315862 0.818806